Event Coin problem

[Ravenblade1979]

"Originally Posted by Gothika
Yeah, that happens. Just because the odds are 50/50 it doesn't mean you win 1 you lose 1. It's still totally random."

He hit it on the head Googi...there are so many things that you need to take into account. Not to mention they would have to make the script so perfect as to do your 50/50 thing. It will never work like that. Not in a hundred years.

[hampy]

If there is such a fuss about making it 50/50 why not make it 40/60? To make it harder to win, but large wins when you do win to make it worth the trouble :o Anyhow, bjorn didn't seem to reply to the idea x-x

[Googi]

Originally Posted by Ravenblade1979

Ok plain and simple have you included ALL variables before you started arguing about this. Its not as simple as you think.

I'm using simplified models, but they're models that more complex models can be reduced to. For example, most slot machines don't work on the simple premise of win/lose. There are different degrees of winning/losing. For example, for a payment of 500 plat, the probabilities might look like this.

5% chance of 10000 tokens
10% chance of 3000 tokens
15% chance of 2000 tokens
20% chance of 1000 tokens
10% chance of 500 tokens
40% chance of 0 tokens

This requires us to use a different approach to the calculation of the conversion rate, but it's still not difficult to calculate.

For 1000 plays (they don't need to be 1000 plays made by the same person, just 1000 made between the entire playerbase)

Approximately 50 will be 10000 token wins. (Approx. 500,000 tokens)
Approximately 100 will be 3000 token wins. (Approx. 300,000 tokens)
Approximately 150 will be 2000 token wins. (Approx. 300,000 tokens)
Approximately 200 will be 1000 token wins. (Approx. 200,000 tokens)
Approximately 100 will be 500 token wins. (Approx. 50,000 tokens)
Approximately 400 will be 0 token wins. ("Approx." 0 tokens)

Total tokens won = approximately 1,350,000 tokens. Now, it's highly unlikely that exactly 1,350,000 tokens will be won, but almost completely certain that it will be a number very close to 1,350,000 (in terms of % deviance).

Assuming a conversion rate of 10,000 tokens = 1 EC, 1000 plays would add approximately 135 ECs into the economy (A conversion rate of 3703 plat = 1 EC). Though the conversion rate can easily be brought up to the "ideal" 10000 plat = 1 EC by making the token conversion rate 27005 tokens = 1 EC (in which case approximately 50 ECs would be added to the economy for 1000 plays/500,000 plat spent).

[hampy]

The casino could be an event in its own right. Wouldn't need EMs to man the place, it could just run all the time, atleast this way ECs will be coming into the economy and will be a much more fair way, allowing all types of players to participate. I know for a fact that some time zones are never covered by EMs, this would allow the people who play at these times to actually have a chance :O /lecture

[Ravenblade1979]

nice googi but i am still looking a bit realistically. you would have a lot of unlucky players.

Hampy I do agree and that would take away one of the prizes that em's give and they would probably include the rest thereby making em's obsolete. In its own rights a casino is cool but in another it would phase out the EM's altogether as ec's, gold keys, dias are just a few of the things we get to give out

[hampy]

Raven, people would still want to play the events that EMs host. The current events would still be there so i'm sure that people would like to keep playing them. Yes there would be more ECs in the economy, but people enjoy playing events, there are some events that I would play even if there wasn't a prize just because I like them so much.

[Googi]

Originally Posted by Ravenblade1979

nice googi but i am still looking a bit realistically. you would have a lot of unlucky players.

Being highly lucky or highly unlucky would pretty much require you to play a low number of times. The more times you play, the more your results will come to reflect the probabilities programmed into the machine.

[hampy]

Another point that was raised would be the tickets you win could be exchanged for items as well not just ECs, gold keys and diamonds. I think this would give more reason to use the casino, perhaps there could be different priced items, e.g EC and Gold key costs 10,000 tickets, and then say a ring would cost 20,000 tickets, this would mean that not only ECs are being released ;o

[hampy]

Originally Posted by Googi

Being highly lucky or highly unlucky would pretty much require you to play a low number of times. The more times you play, the more your results will come to reflect the probabilities programmed into the machine.

Would it be possible to have a changing winning percentage? I dont know i'm just wondering, maybe it would just randomly decide one day to have 30/70 win/loss then the next day 50/50 then the next day 70/30?? Dunno if that would be possible though

[Googi]

Originally Posted by hampy

Another point that was raised would be the tickets you win could be exchanged for items as well not just ECs, gold keys and diamonds. I think this would give more reason to use the casino, perhaps there could be different priced items, e.g EC and Gold key costs 10,000 tickets, and then say a ring would cost 20,000 tickets, this would mean that not only ECs are being released ;o

Either way, you're still establishing a conversion rate. Instead of the economic effect being identical to allowing a conversion of 10000 plat to 1EC, it's not identical to allowing conversions of 10000 plat to 1 EC or 1 Gold Key and 20000 plat to some kind of ring (assuming we're using a machine where the probabilities create a conversion rate of approximately 10000 plat to approximately 10000 tokens/tickets.

Originally Posted by hampy

Would it be possible to have a changing winning percentage? I dont know i'm just wondering, maybe it would just randomly decide one day to have 30/70 win/loss then the next day 50/50 then the next day 70/30?? Dunno if that would be possible though

Sure it's possible, but there would still be a de facto average conversion rate (you calculate the probability of each outcome using both the "base" probability and the random modifier that changes daily), however you would be allowing a person who has a lot of plat (it would probably have to be well in excess of 100,000, but people with that kind of plat holdings exist) to exploit the system by using a significant amount of plat (though it would be a small amount compared to their total savings) to determine the "conversion rate of the day" and then using their entire savings when they deem it favourable.

[Ravenblade1979]

I am still all for it.

[hampy]

Well, in that case there could be a limit of how many tickets you can get each day, that should be able to stop people spending loads when they find its a good time to gamble :x

[Ravenblade1979]

Nice

[Ravenblade1979]

I was just in coin shop and only seen two high priced items. Gale Armor at 70 or 75 ec's and bezelbub (or w/e) shield for 75 ec's.

The rest are a respectable 45 and below.

[hampy]

Yes, its good to have some expensive items but there needs to be more cheap items that newer players can get. A new player wouldnt be able to afford say 20 ECs but they would be about to get say 5 :o thats why this casino idea should be added

[Ravenblade1979]

Well then they should think of adding items that are less...like the speed ammy and demon ammy are both 12 ec's each. thats pretty goood. but casino..VIVA LAS BOMY

[Gothika]

I'd like to see some weapons in the Coin Shop for a change.

[cyan3]

Originally Posted by Gothika

I'd like to see some weapons in the Coin Shop for a change.

For the time that i have been on GK i have only ever seen armour in the Coin Works so it will be nice to see some weapons.

[Ravenblade1979]

Weapons would be nice but you would be looking again at high costing ec's.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by cyan3

For the time that i have been on GK i have only ever seen armour in the Coin Works so it will be nice to see some weapons.

Hammers used to be in there.

[cyan3]

Originally Posted by Chris

Hammers used to be in there.

I have only been playing GK for 2 years so they might have been before my time.

[Gothika]

Originally Posted by Ravenblade1979

Weapons would be nice but you would be looking again at high costing ec's.

That depends on the weapon. But I guess to stop upset. They would have to bring back old weapons or introduce new ones so people who already have these rare weapon's won't be pissed off about it.

[Waltz5]

I like the idea of the Event Coin Shop rotating like a normal shop. Draenin was supposed to work on it but never finished.

Basically tons of items have a set value. However I was thinking they would cost less EC's and more other items like rubies of great value, stuff that isn't used. Then they restock like a normal shop.

This way, once this shop is done, staff do not have to worry about updating it. However, an influx of more ECs would be nice.

[Ravenblade1979]

God yes more ec's would be nice but we are stuck with what we get on refills.

[Felix_Xenophobe]

Originally Posted by Waltz5

I like the idea of the Event Coin Shop rotating like a normal shop. Draenin was supposed to work on it but never finished.

Basically tons of items have a set value. However I was thinking they would cost less EC's and more other items like rubies of great value, stuff that isn't used. Then they restock like a normal shop.

This way, once this shop is done, staff do not have to worry about updating it. However, an influx of more ECs would be nice.

That would be so awesome!

[hampy]

Yeah Kydens idea is pretty sweet, that could work too

[sage_scooby]

I wouldnt mind if the shop had more things in it of less value. They wouldnt even need to be great things just items that are no longer available but decent. We all know craftable items arent worth anything.


Also I wouldnt mind seeing some weapons in there either.

[konidias]

Anyone going against what Googi is stating should not even be posting their opinions here. I've played many gambling games over the years, and the math he is posting is spot on. If you have a 50% chance of winning and a 50% chance of losing, over the course of thousands of games played, you're starting amount is hardly going to change.

If you're looking at like 10 games, then yes, it's possible that you have an upswing... But the downswing will come. Believe me.

I played poker for many years and while there is some skill involved, most people rely mainly on luck. I've seen countless people bragging about their hot streak only to come back a week later and talk about how they've been getting cold decked and been on the worst losing streak ever. It balances out.

I really think a casino wouldn't solve much of anything... I think you should make something more like a carnival which would involve games of skill with a bit of luck thrown in. A carnival would also fit better into a GK time period. I think some people want a casino just because they hope of hitting it rich. It's what las vegas thrives on... people who think they are gonna be millionaires. But the majority just walk away with empty pockets.

[Gothika]

Originally Posted by sage_scooby

I wouldnt mind if the shop had more things in it of less value. They wouldnt even need to be great things just items that are no longer available but decent. We all know craftable items arent worth anything.


Also I wouldnt mind seeing some weapons in there either.

Stuff like lightning sabre would be cool to bring back. It's nothing special but it's still a fairly decent weapon. Also there's weapons on debug. Like the whip. Maybe they should release those aswell.

[Ravenblade1979]

Now a carnival would do and your right would fit in. Like maybe a arrow game.

[cyan3]

Originally Posted by sage_scooby

I wouldnt mind if the shop had more things in it of less value. They wouldnt even need to be great things just items that are no longer available but decent. We all know craftable items arent worth anything.


Also I wouldnt mind seeing some weapons in there either.

They should have cheap items in the event coins shop other than Demon Stone and Speed Ammy and weapons would be good to add to the shop im sick of armour all the time.

[Ravenblade1979]

hmm weapons yes...but the ec price would still be high..they don't know how to make things cheap.

[hampy]

Yes weapons, that would be a nice idea. Some of the old items could be brought back like darkinferno etc

[Ravenblade1979]

ugh more old items..time for new weapons.

[hampy]

We all know that new weapons wont be released, better having old weapons than nothing at all.. cheap old weapons at that. (1-2 EC) make them widely available

[Ravenblade1979]

the staff wouldn't do that..betcha if they did lowest would cost 25-40 ec's just to get

[hampy]

Originally Posted by Ravenblade1979

the staff wouldn't do that..betcha if they did lowest would cost 25-40 ec's just to get

Why in the past some of the old items have been widely used, they weren't rare at all but as time passed they were slowly gone from the economy untill now none are left. We could just have them back and make them craftable just like they have been in the past. I would love to see some nice old weapons back for everyone to use, it would be nice to have something added that wasn't actually expensive for a change so new players have a chance at getting some items

[Ravenblade1979]

yeah that would be nice..maybe we should goto stefan with this idea.

[Gothika]

Dark Inferno.. no. Not unless it costs a lot of ECs because they can't have to many of those floating around the server.

[ViperZakuto]

Originally Posted by Chris

Hammers used to be in there.

yeah when it first opened, it had hamma for 250 coins.

The most we ever got was 118. we paid 3-5k for all of them. This was befor the shop even opened. people didn't save them and lance and jagen handed them out like hotcakes. too bad jagen was corrupt.