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Make that 3 posts.
Monday:
GB @ MIN
Winner:Too many deciding factors to call.
Honestly, I don't want to call this one. Obviously the Pack is my home team, but theres going to be a lot of factors we just can only take a stab at, that will decide this game in the end. My head says Vikings win but my gut says Packers pull it out:
1.Can Dom Capers bottle up AP without constantly stacking the box?
This is key for the Packers. If they can't keep the running game of the Vikings in control, this game is lost. If you can't bottle up AP, you either get ran on all day or be forced to stack the box and leave themselves open to 1 on 1 coverage, which Favre can attack easily using the speed of his WRs to get an edge on the pro bowl corner tandem, using his knowledge about his former teammates, Harris and Woodson, against him. However, if AP gets bottled up enough, Favre will have to take shots into coverage. This is not what Favre wants to do with corners that have practiced with him for several years, and know his tendencies and will exploit it the best they can.
Dom Capers has proved he can stop the run, but not on a consistent basis.
He was able to completely lock down the explosive Bears RB, Matt Forte, but could not do the same against Cedric Benson the following week. They only did marginally better against the powerful Steven Jackson last week. They started off strong, constantly tackling Jackson in the backfield, but that didn't hold 100% of the time, allowing Jackson to eat up chunks of yardage and plow into the second level as the game went on.
Will he able towin the chess match against Peterson and Favre? Maybe, maybe not, we will have to watch to find out, though I would imagine it will start out good, as usual. Expect Capers to mask his plays extensively vs. the experienced Favre. If Favre is able to read the packers defense, it will be a long day for them, as Favre is one of the best when it comes to reading defenses before the snap and adjusting the play accordingly. If Capers is able to lock up Peterson at least long enough for Rodgers to get a significant lead going, it will help the Packers immensely in walking away with a W. Putting Favre behind will force Favre to air out the ball with a sense of urgency to catch up, putting him in the gunslinger situation. SF's secondary struggled locking Favre up when he started to air it out, especially in the second half. However, the secondary of GB is much more experienced and much more talented to create turnovers when a QB is forced to line up in the shotgun very other play and try to put the ball down the field. Shutting down AP is vital, otherwise, the capers defense will become predictable, which is one of the main strengths of that defensive scheme, as shown on Cutler. With the inability to read the defense, Favre will not know if there's pressure coming, how much if so, and from which directions. Without having an idea on the defense and whats vs whats dropping back into coverage, Favre's years of experience just aren't that useful as they need to be to consistently score and avoid turnovers.
2. For the other side of the ball, there's a couple questions. By far the most important question is the status of the Packers offensive line.
Clifton's return after his ankle injury is unknown until later this week when practices come. If he was to return, it would increase the performance of the struggling offensive line greatly. They have been improving slowly after the disasters earlier in the season with the Bengals, allowing 2 sacks against the Rams compared to the eariler 4 and 6 against the Bears and Bengals respectively. This will further be tested by the Williams wall.
The more the o-line performs well, the more options Rodgers has. Even with no options other than to scramble constantly to stay off the ground and then throw down the field into coverage, Rodgers has proved he can still put points on the board 1-dimensionally without having a single turnover this year. Amazing that he can do this, but this is not where the packers want to be again and it will make these difficult games hard to win. With a good offensive line, the running game opens up for Ryan Grant down the middle, which he excels at, rather than either getting stuffed up the middle or being forced to run outside. With protection and a running game to open up the playaction, Aaron Rodgers will be unstoppable, being able to pound the ball with Grant, throw quick receptions to one of the best WR cores in the NFL, and use the playaction to find gennings deep and force Favre to constantly answer the scores of the Packers explosive offense with his arm, not something the Vikings want to have to do, risking turning the ball over on a forced throw.
In summary, theres too many unknowns for me to call this game. It could go largely in any direction. If the offensive line is good enough to create gaps for Grant and protect Rodgers in the pocket, the Packers offense will be ridiculously explosive. However, if they have that and are missing the run defense, this will be a very high scoring shootout for both teams. Vice versa and it will be a low score game similar to the CHI @ GB game of week 1.
If the Packers are unable to do either, the Vikings will be in control of the game(and clock), and Rodgers would have to rely on his accuracy along with the skill of his receivers to make plays and at least stay in the game and keep the lead by the Vikings low. Not very likely to win that situation.
We'll see how it turns out, but I have a hunch that this game is going to be a close shootout. |